Obama: 275, Tossups: 72, Romney: 191


Media hype notwithstanding, the latest polls show Obama consistently ahead in Ohio and New Hampshire, with a lead above the aggregate margin of error. At this point the only wild card that could snatch away another four years in the White House for Obama would be voting fraud in Ohio.

My prediction for the actual result? North Carolina leans towards Romney pretty strongly, while Colorado leans towards Obama. Obama holds marginal polling leads in Iowa and Virginia, and Romney a marginal lead in Florida. Thus, I’d say 303-235 is the most likely outcome, though the only thing I can confidently guarantee is that Obama gets 275 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, it looks like the Democrats will shore up their slim Senate majority, while the Republicans will hold on to their significant House majority.