Tag Archive: 2012 election

Obama: 275, Tossups: 72, Romney: 191


Media hype notwithstanding, the latest polls show Obama consistently ahead in Ohio and New Hampshire, with a lead above the aggregate margin of error. At this point the only wild card that could snatch away another four years in the White House for Obama would be voting fraud in Ohio.

My prediction for the actual result? North Carolina leans towards Romney pretty strongly, while Colorado leans towards Obama. Obama holds marginal polling leads in Iowa and Virginia, and Romney a marginal lead in Florida. Thus, I’d say 303-235 is the most likely outcome, though the only thing I can confidently guarantee is that Obama gets 275 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, it looks like the Democrats will shore up their slim Senate majority, while the Republicans will hold on to their significant House majority.

"It's not denial. I'm just very selective about the reality I choose to accept." - Calvin

Conservatives are arguing that the likely voter models used in election polls, especially State-level polls, are flawed because they use the anomalous high turnout in 2008 for those who identify as Democrats rather than the historically lower past turnouts. The implication seems to be that polling companies have tweaked the turnout models to be biased to Obama. This is simply wishful thinking by Romney-supporters. Gallup’s likely voter model, for example, is a fully objective model. It’s true that one factor in many – whether voters voted in the last election – could be biased towards Democrats because of the 2008 elections. But this factor is going to be marginal, and likely balanced out by the entrance of new voters in their 20s and early 30s – who’re likely to lean liberal.

But it’s interesting to consider why voter turnout amongst liberals is likely to be so strong compared to conservatives. One would expect that the wave of euphoria of electing a new President after the Bush fiasco and having the first black President in history wouId have washed over by now. I would argue that there are two factors behind the continued high turnout in liberals. First, latinos are beginning to mobilize in much larger numbers. In elections to come, they will become an increasingly crucial demographic in elections, and will shift the political spectrum significantly towards the left on economic and foreign policy issues. Second, given the current state of the economy, liberals are especially frightened by the prospect of having someone as out of touch with the common man as Romney in charge of the United States. Though many are disillusioned by Obama, they may still be turning out to make sure that the more worrisome Romney doesn’t win.